A billboard with a picture of Syria's Bashar al-Assad shows damage by bullet holes in Damascus, Syria

Ejected from Syria, Iran offers olive branch to its new rulers

Tuesday, 12/17/2024

Iran's ambassador to the United Nations on Tuesday expressed openness to good relations with a new Syria, turning a page on over a decade of Iranian military support against the rebel groups which now run the country.

"Iran and Syria share historical and friendly relations which continue to grow based on mutual interest and international legal principles," Amir Saeid Iravani said during a United Nations Security Council session.

"Iran remains steadfast in its constructive role, working with United Nations regional partners and the Syrian people to achieve lasting peace and stability in Syria and the wider region."

The collapse this month of President Bashar al-Assad's government delivered a major blow to Iran's influence in the Middle East.

For years, Tehran poured resources into maintaining the Axis of Resistance—a regional alliance aimed at countering Western and Israeli influence. Syria under Assad served as a linchpin in this strategy, acting as a vital link for Iranian support to Hezbollah in Lebanon and a launchpad for Tehran's broader regional ambitions.

"The future of Syria must be decided solely by its people, free from external interference or imposition," Iravani added. "An inclusive, Syrian-led and Syrian-owned political process, facilitated by the UN ... is essential."

The rapid advance of rebel forces and their capture of Damascus on December 8, forced Assad into exile in Russia and upended Iran's regional role.

Iran's Revolutionary Guards and Quds Force operatives who had played a central role in bolstering Assad were forced to withdraw, stripping Tehran of its military and intelligence leverage.

Armed rebels stormed and looted the Iranian embassy, and a truck parked outside was photographed toting away a large golden chandelier.

Iravani described Iran's military intervention in the country as vital to defeating militants from Islamic State, referred to as Daesh in Arabic.

"For years, Iran has provided legitimate support to Syria in his fight against terrorism, acting upon the formal and lawful request of the then Syrian government," he said. "Without Iran and Hezbollah's decisive efforts and sacrifices, Syria would have fallen entirely under the control of Daesh and its affiliated terrorist groups."

The remarks stood in contrast to those of Iran's ultimate decider of domestic and foreign policy, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who said in a speech last week that the Syrian rebels would be pushed out.

“By God’s blessing, the territories occupied in Syria will be freed by the brave young people of Syria,” Khamenei said. “Have no doubt that this will happen.”

Iravani said on Tuesday that preserving Syria's institutions is key to preventing further chaos, warning of the consequences if governance structures collapse.

"Maintaining Syrian governmental institutions is vital for stability... Institutional collapse risks further fragmentation, humanitarian suffering, and exploitation by extremists," he said.

A damaged picture of Syria's Bashar al-Assad lies on the floor inside Qamishli international airport, after Syrian rebels announced that they have ousted Syria's Bashar al-Assad, in Qamishli, Syria December 9, 2024.

At home, Iran's regional setbacks have heightened scrutiny of Iran’s foreign policy priorities, with critics questioning the allocation of resources to wars abroad while economic conditions deteriorate domestically.

Khamenei in his speech attributed Assad’s downfall to a plot by the United States and Israel and also ascribed blame to Turkey without explicitly naming it.

As Tehran grapples with the fallout, its regional strategy may see significant changes, including a potential push to advance its nuclear program as a means of restoring deterrence. However, the loss of Syria as a strategic ally represents a major challenge for Iran, signaling a significant realignment in regional geopolitics.

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